Lamar Jackson is out with an injury, the Baltimore Ravens defense has been one of the worst in the league and they host a Houston Texans team that won 26-0 last week.
And who is favored when the Ravens meet the Texans today?
The Texans.
The wise guys think they have the Ravens ripe for a rare home loss.
It is not often that Baltimore is challenged motivationally from the spike side. Most often, the Ravens go into a game favored on the spread and confident that their talent on both sides of the ball will carry them to a win. When they lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs two years ago, they were favored. When they met the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday they were favored before getting blown out by more than two touchdowns, 37-20.
Why is John Harbaugh’s team consistently favored by both the books and public opinion?
It is because they are so damn good and have so many weapons on both sides of the ball that most just can’t overlook. Jackson has solid receivers to work with and one of the best runningbacks in NFL history to hand the ball off to, Derek Henry. On defense, Harbaugh squads have been tough as nails and one of the best players in the league, Kyle Hamilton, neutralizes most opposing offenses with both speed and intelligence.
Oh yeah, Hamilton is missing from the Ravens lineup today too, out with an injury.
The public is still backing the Ravens by a 7 to 5 margin, but this time they have that rare opportunity to get Baltimore with a point on the spread.
Is that point fool's gold?
That is what a lot of the sharp point spread players are suspecting … that is why the Texans have maintained their favorite role since the spread shifted on news Jackson would be missing the action. The spread on this game released four weeks ago had the home team favored by 7½ points, the line opened on Sunday night with Baltimore favored by 3½ points. Then with questions on Jackson the books took the game off the board on Monday and brought it back on Tuesday with the visitors favored by 2½ points.
The Texans need this game after opening their 2025 season with three consecutive losses. And the spread shift shows a lot of informed bettors are thinking C.J. Stroud and company are a good bet over a Ravens team led by backup quarterback Cooper Rush.
Not me.
I see the Texans are challenged and ready to battle the Ravens on Baltimore’s home field and I like the teams most challenged. While it is true that the Texans need this game because they have already lost three games this year … so have the Ravens.
In this case need is equal, want is equal, but the fear of failure belongs to the Ravens … and that is most often the deciding factor.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (+1) over the Houston Texans