NFL 2025 Season - PS4
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Super Bowl
Less has Won
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Beep-Beep-Beep
Week 18
Both Right
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Week 17
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First of Three
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Week 15
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Week 13
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Week 12
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Week 10
Pack Tonight
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Week 9
Defense Still Matters
Good Again
Returning Quarterbacks
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Dolphins Dipping
Score This
Missing Score
Week 8
Expectations Leveled
Grudge Match
NFL and Gambling World Cry Foul
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Argue This
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Week 5
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Home and Auto
So Close
Preseason 3
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Offseason
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Looking Forward
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Business for Profits
     
 
QB Compensation
by Dennis Ranahan

Who was the worst quarterback to start a Super Bowl win?

Some might submit the name of Trent Dilfer, who replaced Tony Banks midseason and guided the defense-driven Baltimore Ravens to a win over the New York Giants in Super Bowl XXXV. There have been a lot more weak signal callers that got to the Super Bowl than won it. David Woodley comes to mind, he was the Miami Dolphins quarterback in 1982 when Don Shula’s team lost to the Washington Redskins in Super Bowl XVII. A couple months after that loss the Dolphins drafted Dan Marino, and their quarterback liability was solved.

From my perspective, I would say the worst quarterback to win a Super Bowl was Jeff Hostetler. He took over Bill Parcell’s New York Giants in December of the 1990 season when Phil Simms was injured and lost for the remainder of the season. Like Baltimore in 2000, the Giants success was keyed by a rock solid defense.

In the NFC Championship Game a fumble by usually reliable Roger Craig in a game at Candlestick Park allowed the Giants an opportunity to make a last second field goal and escape San Francisco with a 15-13 victory. In the Super Bowl that year, a field goal was the decider again, when Scott Norwood missed wide right on a final play of the game that could have won the contest for the Buffalo Bills in their first Super Bowl experience.

As we know, the Bills advanced to three more consecutive games in search of a Vince Lombardi Trophy and never got as close as that loss to New York to complete the 1990 season.

While Baltimore was dominant on defense and Dilfer had his best pro season, the Giants win with Hostetler was solely achieved by their defense. Even as the field general, Hostetler was not much more than along for the ride.

On Sunday, the Denver Broncos will look to advance to a Super Bowl with what could go down in history as the weakest quarterback to ever win a conference championship game. With the injury to Bo Nix in overtime last Sunday, Sean Payton has had to turn to six-year NFL veteran backup Jarrett Stidham. His Championship Game quarterback has had four pro starts and lost three of them.

So, what chance do the Broncos have when they host the New England Patriots in the early game tomorrow?

First, like the Ravens and Giants who won Super Bowls without dominant quarterbacks, Denver has a rock solid defense. They also led the league in quarterback sacks this season, something that could interrupt Drake Maye’s efforts in leading the Patriots offense.

Maye has had a Most Valuable Player caliber year in his second pro season while leading the Patriots to the second highest scoring total in the league. Only the Los Angeles Rams 518 points were more than the 490 tallied by New England in the 2025 regular season. The Patriots regular season 170 net points edge was also the best in the American Football Conference.

If Nix had not been injured, the spread on this game would have been the homesteading Broncos a 1½ point favorite. Which means this, the line has accounted for Denver having to play their backup quarterback by 5½ points, moving the Broncos from a slight favorite to a 4-point underdog.

Does that line adjustment truly reflect the challenge Denver has in having to play with their backup at the most important position on the field?

It may compensate for the physical shift in ability, but what is perhaps missing from that line is the motivational boost the Broncos get having to compensate for the loss of Nix. Like the Giants with Hostetler beating Joe Montana and Jim Kelly in 1990, the Broncos benefit from that intangible edge found in motivation.

That motivation was bought by the wise guys early, as the opening line on this game was shaved on the first day it was posted from the Patriots by 5½ points to 4½. More than 70% of the wagers on this game are taking the favored Patriots so why is that line dropping, even as low as 4 points today?

When it’s not public money moving the line, it is the so-called smart money.

It doesn’t always win, but it does more often than it gets clipped.

Qoxhi Picks: Denver Broncos (+4) over New England Patriots