Some assumptions seem so obvious they are not challenged even though they are wrong.
Last week, early in the Seahawks blowout win over the San Francisco 49ers, FOX announcer Kevin Burkhardt said to his broadcast partner, Tom Brady, “The Seahawks have such a big advantage playing here in their home stadium.”
Brady, who as the commercial says, knows more about football than perhaps anyone who has ever played the game, continued his conversation with Burkhardt as if his partner’s statement on the Seahawks at home was correct.
In fact, the Seahawks record during the two years with Mike Macdonald has been their head coach, is much better on the road both straight-up and against the point spread. At Lumen Field, the Seahawks are 10-8 straight-up and 7-11 against the point spread. On the road, Seattle is 15-2 straight-up and 12-4-1 against the line.
Does that mean the Los Angeles Rams have a better chance at winning this game in Seattle than they would have if they were hosting the NFC Championship Game?
Since Sean McVay took over at the Rams coach in 2017, his team is 52 and 28 at home straight-up and 41-35-4 against the line. On the road, where the Rams have played their first two postseason games, straight-up wins but point spread losses to the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears, Los Angeles is 50-34 straight-up and 46-36-2 against the line.
In other words, in Seattle and Los Angeles we have two teams that win at home or on the road, but the lone losing figure is the Seahawks against the spread as a favorite on their home field. But, and here is an interesting fact, the Seahawks home record against the line includes a 1-6 mark as a home dog. In other words, Seattle as a favorite at Lumen Field, like they are on Sunday, are 6-5 against the number.
Seattle was a home underdog only once this season, getting 1½ points against the 49ers on opening day in a game won by the visitors, 17-13. We know they got double-revenge over the Niners with both an end of the season victory at Levi’s Stadium to clinch the number one playoff seed in the National Football Conference and last week to open their postseason at home.
The Rams are in a very tough spot historically. Over the past 25 seasons no team that advanced with two wins in the playoffs while losing against the point spread in both games has ever won their next game. Well, at least that sounds right. Doesn’t it?
Is that assertion no different than Burkhardt’s claim that the Seahawks are tough to beat at home? In fact, on further inspection, it is true. One team that kept advancing while losing to the point spread was the 2007 New England Patriots. They ended their regular season with a win over the Giants, but a point spread loss, and opened the playoffs with victories over the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Diego Chargers while losing against the number twice. That was their near perfect season, which ended as a double-digit favorite and straight up loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.
Does that swing the advantage to the Seahawks this Sunday in the AFC Championship Game?
Is it enough to make the Seahawks the pick?
It certainly lends to the Seahawks chances.