Before the Buffalo Bills kicked off their third week of the season contest against the Miami Dolphins on a Thursday night, Josh Allen and company had advanced their odds in Vegas to Super Bowl LX favorites.
There were solid reasons for this.
The Kansas City Chiefs lost their first two games and the other expected primary competition for the Bills in the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens, lost to Buffalo on the opening weekend when the Bills overcame a 15-point fourth quarter deficit to score a 41-40 victory.
Clear sailing. Right?
The Bills haven’t beaten a point spread since.
They won by ten while favored by 11 points in that Thursday night contest against Miami. The next Sunday, while favored by two touchdowns they beat the New Orleans Saints by a dozen points. They followed those two point spread losses with straight-up defeats. Favored at home over the New England Patriots by more than a touchdown, they lost, 23-20. Two weeks ago in another nationally televised game the Bills stumbled in Atlanta while absorbing a ten-point road defeat, 24-14.
What happened to the favored Bills?
Their win over the Ravens was accomplished while underdogs on the spread. Their second week triumph over the New York Jets was their most lopsided win of the season, 30-10. We all know now how bad the Jets are. They remain the only team in the NFL still looking for an initial 2025 win.
The Bills were reading their own headlines, they were not only favored in Vegas to win it all, but they also thought it was theirs for the taking.
It wasn’t … and they know that now.
This week, they meet a team with four wins and a perfect 3-0 mark on their home field. In other words, both the Bills and this week’s opponent, the Carolina Panthers, come into Week Eight action with four victories.
Who do you think is going to pick up a fifth win on Sunday?
The Bills are not only looking to end a two-game losing streak, but they have had two weeks to prepare for this contest following their bye week. In addition to that, Buffalo is looking up in the standings at the New England Patriots who have both more wins than the Bills and a leg up on Buffalo given they beat them in their first head-to-head meeting.
The Panthers are much improved over recent editions of their team, hence their 4-3 season mark and perfect record at home. But to think they have what is required to beat the Bills to a fifth win this season while Buffalo is trailing in their division standings is simply a bridge too far for the young Panthers.
The home team this week will also be without their starting quarterback. Bryce Young, who has found a rhythm that was missing from his first season and a half in the league, will likely be replaced by veteran backup Andy Dalton.
Dalton is an adequate backup, but he is getting the starting assignment against the wrong team on the wrong day.
Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (-7) over Carolina Panthers