Nine years ago, on Christmas Eve, Derek Carr’s best season as a professional quarterback came to an end when he suffered an ankle injury. Carr was enjoying a Most Valuable Player caliber season and had the Raiders primed for a playoff run.
Without him, backup Connor Cook took over the offense which had the team end the season with a lopsided loss to the Denver Broncos, 24-6. In their only playoff game, the Raiders were eliminated in a Wild Card game against the Houston Texans, 27-14.
On Sunday, the Denver Broncos will face a similar problem in the playoffs when they are forced to go without injured Bo Nix and be led by a quarterback who attempted one pass this season and completed it for a one-yard loss, Jarrett Stidham.
Stidham is a seven-year veteran and is playing for his third National Football League team. Drafted by the New England Patriots in 2019, he thought he might have a shot at being their starting quarterback when Tom Brady moved on to Tampa before the 2020 season. Instead, New England acquired veteran Cam Newton to serve in that role and Stidham’s career as a backup continued during a season in Las Vegas and the past three years with the Broncos.
Now he is asked to lead a Denver team looking for their first Super Bowl appearance since Peyton Manning played the final game of his Hall of Fame career with a win over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50.
Manning to Stidham.
Quite a gap.
In 2012, the Minnesota Vikings starting quarterback was Christian Ponder. He enjoyed his best professional campaign that year, the only season in which he threw more touchdowns than interceptions, 18 to 12, and led the Vikings to the playoffs. On the final day of the regular season Ponder was injured and the following week in a Wild Card game Minnesota was forced to start untested backup Joe Webb. At Lambeau Field, the Packers dominated Webb and the Vikings, 24-10.
Is there any evidence from history that offers hope for the Broncos with an untested backup starting in the playoffs?
One would need to go back to 1965 when the Baltimore Colts had both Johnny Unitas and Gary Cuozzo injured and were forced to start runnigback Tom Matte at quarterback. In his first start, on the last day of the regular season, he led a narrow win over the Los Angeles Rams, 20-17. The following week, he opened the playoffs with a loss to the Packers in Green Bay, 20-17.
Still looking for something to offer hope for a Broncos win on Sunday at Mile High Stadium.
Here are a few factors to consider that may lean the Broncos way.
First, Sean Payton’s team is led by their stout defense, although their offense went through Nix’s arm as Denver had the second most passing attempts in the league this year and were ranked high in completion percentage, passing yards and yards per attempt. They ranked best in avoiding sack yards against, and on defense Denver registered the most sacks in the league.
Second, the Broncos are at home. The Raiders postseason loss in the 2016 season and the Vikings setback four years earlier were both road games for the team forced to start their backup QB. Few teams in the NFL have a better home field advantage than the Broncos.
Third, and I am a big proponent of this trend, teams forced to go with a backup quarterback routinely get a big effort out of both their defense and other offensive players. I suspect you can picture why, needing to compensate for the loss of a starting quarterback will quicken the attention to detail and motivation for the rest of the squad.
A motivated Broncos team is going to be tough to beat.
The opening point spread on this game had Denver getting 5½ points on the line. That number was quickly shaved to 4½ points and that move was not prompted by public money, where nearly 70% of the wagers are backing the road favored New England Patriots.
The game might be a lot tougher to call than the point spread result.