Before 2008, the coin toss determined who would get the ball first. It was automatic that the coin toss winner got the ball. In 2008, the National Football League changed the rule to allow the coin toss winner the choice to take the ball or kick, and if they chose to kick to open the game they would receive the second half kickoff.
Now, it is rare that a team that wins the toss elects to take the ball first.
Two weeks ago, the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks met on the final day of the regular season to determine which team got the top seed and what team would drop to a fifth or sixth seed. The top seed offered home field advantage for as long as that team remained in the playoffs.
Perhaps, the league should have offered the winner of that game played two weeks ago, the Seahawks, the choice on whether they wanted the home field or road game today. Because, simply based on past results, these two NFC West combatants have better road records than home results.
During Kyle Shanahan’s tenure with San Francisco, the 49ers are 40 and 34 at home and 42-33 on the road. Against the point spread, the road advantage is 42-32-1 versus a home record against the line of 33-40-1.
In Seattle, during his two years as the Seahawks head coach, Mike Macdonald has led the Seahawks to a 9-8 record at home and an impressive 15-2 road mark. Against the spread, the Seahawks have a losing 6-11 mark at Lumen Field and a winning 12-4-1 record on the road.
Does that swing the advantage in tonight’s Divisional battle between these two teams, set to start at 5:00 p.m. Pacific Time, to the visitor?
The home and away numbers is one factor to consider before taking a side in this matchup. There are a lot of other elements in play.
The 49ers have been so resilient this year that it is difficult to buck their chances in this one. But not impossible.
Seattle Quarterback Sam Darnold sat out practice yesterday with an oblique muscle tear that has him listed as questionable on today’s injury report. Let me clear up that question, Darnold is starting today for the Seahawks. This is an opportunity for the Seahawks quarterback to erase the bitter end to his season with Minnesota last year. His spectacular 2024 play while winning 14 games ended with a final day of the regular season loss to the Detroit Lions when the Vikings had a chance for the top seed. In their Wild Card game, Minnesota got crushed by the Los Angeles Rams.
This year, Darnold again got his chance to earn the top seed on the final day of the regular season and captured it it with a win over the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Now, in front of his home fans, he gets another chance to win a playoff game … he won’t miss this opportunity even if tweaked by the injury.
Darnold has had another sterling year behind center, but the strength of the Seahawks is really their shutdown defense. The 49ers have been playing with house money for most of the season. They have succeeded through injury after injury and the need to overcome those liabilities has driven this team to success beyond expectations.
If the 49ers were coming to Seattle and the number one seed team thought they were in a good position, then the motivation of the spirited 49ers could have got them a win, or at least a cover on the generous point spread. But the injury to Darnold, his backup is Drew Lock if it comes to that, spikes the motivation on the far superior defense in this matchup.
Most figure this to be a low scoring game, I don’t. I think if Darnold is able to play to his full capabilities he will shred the injury depleted 49ers defense.
Bottom line, the number one seed moves on, and the 49ers miracle season comes to an end.
Qoxhi Picks: Seattle Seahawks (-7) over San Francisco 49ers