The chant at Woodstock was, “No rain, no rain, no rain.” The chant didn’t work in 1969, but it is true today for the nine National Football League games scheduled at outdoor venues. There is not only no rain, but late summer type conditions from coast to coast. Even in London, where the Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns kicked off a couple hours ago, the weather was overcast but without rain in the forecast.
The San Francisco 49ers upset the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night to notch their fourth win of the season. Only two other teams in the league have that many wins, the undefeated Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles. Against the point spread, the 49ers have dropped two decisions, as has the Buffalo Bills. The Eagles 4-0 straight-up mark includes point spread wins gained in their most recent three games.
Tonight, the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots. The Bills, as stated, are perfect straight up but the past two weeks have lost against the number to a pair of suspect squads, the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints. This is a case where the Bills are good enough to win confidently, and they have not been challenged the past two weeks to run up the score against overmatched competition.
Which brings us to tonight’s game against the Patriots. Does New England challenge the Bills enough to get their best effort, or will Buffalo again glide to a straight-up win but fail to cover the point spread? Buffalo is currently favored by eight points and might just be challenged enough by the Patriots given New England beat them on the final day of the regular season last year and blew out the Carolina Panthers last week, 42-13.
Then there is the factor that the Patriots come into this game in second place and two back in their AFC East Division standings. Historically, a team in second place playing a division opponent that trails in the standings by two games has a huge advantage. On our charts, we call it a 31, because after the game the first-place team will either have a three game or one game lead in their division.
The motivation to not slip three back is more pronounced than a first-place team knowing they are going to be in first place win or lose.
But, that stat falls somewhat flat with the Bills simply because Buffalo is not focused on winning their division, they assume they will win it for a sixth consecutive season. Sean McDermott’s team is in it to win it all and what they are looking at is securing home field advantage for the playoffs.
The Bills are too good to bet against, and in a difficult spot on their schedule. We will have more on that game in tonight’s column that will post at 4:00 p.m. Pacific Time.
As for the public this week, their favorite play is the Indianapolis Colts (-7) over the Las Vegas Raiders. The next two most bet games are the Philadelphia Eagles (-4) over the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions (-10) over the Cincinnati Bengals.
As for Qoxhi, our three rated selections for today are now posted on this site, and if a Bullet Play develops in the final hour before the 10:00 a.m. kickoffs, that game will be added to the recommendations by 9:45 a.m.