Eight games on today’s National Football League schedule and three of them have the kind of edges we are looking for to recommend a summer wager. The schedule opens at 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time with the Buffalo Bills hosting the New York Giants, while our action starts three hours later when the Houston Texans visit the Minnesota Vikings.
While early regular season advantages are available while the public is betting and the books are forced to set lines based on how teams did last year, in the preseason similar advantages can be cashed when teams looking to rebound are challenged by a squad off a good season.
That is the case in Minnesota when the Vikings host the Jaguars under first-year head coach Liam Coen.
The Vikings had a season in 2024 that earned them 14 regular season wins behind a quarterback playing for his fourth team and still looking to live up to being the third overall pick in the 2018 draft. Sam Darnold had failed with his first team, the New York Jets, and hadn’t distinguished himself in stops with the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers.
Then, last year, Darnold led the Vikings to the playoffs while winning 14 of 17 regular season games.
Still, the Vikings didn’t reward their starting quarterback with a contract after the season. Instead, they moved on to what they expected to do the prior season before first round draft choice, J.J. McCarthy, suffered a preseason injury that ended his 2024 campaign. Darnold is now with his fifth team, the Seattle Seahawks, and McCarthy is penciled in as the Vikings starter.
Today, the Vikings unveil their new offense and run smack into a team that by our numbers is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, the Houston Texans. We like the Texans chances in the long run this season, and we think their success will start today.
After earning a postseason win three seasons ago the Jacksonville Jaguars slumped the past two years and the failures cost Doug Pederson his job. The Jaguars are looking for both a team rebound under first-year head coach Liam Coen and a reemergence of their one-time first over pick in the draft, quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
A new head coach with a team off a bad year and talent that is poised to excel gives us confidence that the Jaguars win today in Minnesota, and we’ll take the five points on the spread as an insurance policy on our wager.
Our third choice today takes advantage of the public betting on last year’s results in a game that the visiting underdog is perfectly capable of winning. That is why the books installed the Tennessee Titans a favorite over the Buccaneers in Tampa.
Why would the Titans be a favorite against a home team that earned a playoff spot last year unless they were in a sweet preseason spot? Add to the equation that the public is betting on Tampa Bay by an 80% margin and the favorite role on the Titans has gone up from the opening line one-and-one-half points to where Tennessee is currently favored by a field goal.
Those points on the spread with Tampa Bay is candy for the bettors, and likely profits for the books.
We are with the books on this one.
Qoxhi Picks: Tennessee Titans (-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers